Sunday, June 29, 2014

The Systemic Sources of Geopolitical Turmoil: Instability, Fragmentation, Resource Wars

The proximate trigger of instability is less important than we think.

It's tempting to think that the resolution of various geopolitical crises would restore global stability: tempting, but wrong. Global turmoil may appear to have specific causes--Ukraine, Iraq, Syria,etc.--but the deeper reality is the instability is systemic.

The proximate trigger of instability is less important than we think. The often-cited analogy is a sand pile formed by a steady trickle of sand from a storage bin. The sand slowly accumulates into a seemingly stable pile. But the structure of the pile becomes increasingly unstable as the sides steepen and the height grows, and at some unpredictable point the pile suddenly collapses in cascades of sand.

Do we focus on the last grain of sand that triggered the collapse of apparent stability, or do we focus on the real cause, the rise in systemic instability?

Gordon Long and I discussed these systemic causes of global conflict in Geopolitical Turmoil: Instability, Fragmentation, Resource Wars:


We discuss five systemic sources of global instability:

1. Failed Governments/States, where failed means an inability to provide the citizenry with basic levels of security, civil liberties and basic necessities of life.

Failed states are characterized by:

  • Weak Institutions & Corruption
  • Failed Governance/Political Gridlock
  • Failure of Central Planning Model
  • Failure of Neo-Liberal Model of Capitalism

  • 2. Fragmentation of nation-states
     assembled in the 20th century by the Great Powers.


    3. Divided geopolitical loyalties of traditional states located on geopolitical fault lines.

    4. Resource wars:

  • Transport of energy
  • Fewer resources (food, water, energy)
  • Shortages/rising prices of resources

  • 5. Insolvency of Nations/governments due to unpayable debts.


    Thinking that putting out geopolitical fires is the solution to global instability is equivalent to thinking that the solution to forest fires is to douse every small fire before it spreads. What results is an entire forest piled high with so much deadwood that the next fire will necessarily explode into a raging, uncontrollable conflagration.




    Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy(Kindle, $9.95)(print, $20)
    go to Kindle editionAre you like me? Ever since my first summer job decades ago, I've been chasing financial security. Not win-the-lottery, Bill Gates riches (although it would be nice!), but simply a feeling of financial control. I want my financial worries to if not disappear at least be manageable and comprehensible.


    And like most of you, the way I've moved toward my goal has always hinged not just on having a job but a career.
    You don't have to be a financial blogger to know that "having a job" and "having a career" do not mean the same thing today as they did when I first started swinging a hammer for a paycheck.

    Even the basic concept "getting a job" has changed so radically that jobs--getting and keeping them, and the perceived lack of them--is the number one financial topic among friends, family and for that matter, complete strangers.

    So I sat down and wrote this book: Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

    It details everything I've verified about employment and the economy, and lays out an action plan to get you employed.

    I am proud of this book. It is the culmination of both my practical work experiences and my financial analysis, and it is a useful, practical, and clarifying read.

    Test drive the first section and see for yourself.     Kindle, $9.95     print, $20

    "I want to thank you for creating your book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. It is rare to find a person with a mind like yours, who can take a holistic systems view of things without being captured by specific perspectives or agendas. Your contribution to humanity is much appreciated."
    Laura Y.

    Gordon Long and I discuss The New Nature of Work: Jobs, Occupations & Careers (25 minutes, YouTube) 




    NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.


    Thank you, Arooj S. ($200), for your beyond outrageously generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.Thank you, Helen S. ($75), for your outstandingly generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

    Terms of Service

    All content on this blog is provided by Trewe LLC for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. These terms and conditions of use are subject to change at anytime and without notice.


    Our Privacy Policy:


    Correspondents' email is strictly confidential. This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative). If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly. Websites and blog links on the site's blog roll are posted at my discretion.


    PRIVACY NOTICE FOR EEA INDIVIDUALS


    This section covers disclosures on the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) for users residing within EEA only. GDPR replaces the existing Directive 95/46/ec, and aims at harmonizing data protection laws in the EU that are fit for purpose in the digital age. The primary objective of the GDPR is to give citizens back control of their personal data. Please follow the link below to access InvestingChannel’s General Data Protection Notice. https://stg.media.investingchannel.com/gdpr-notice/


    Notice of Compliance with The California Consumer Protection Act
    This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising. If you do not want any personal information that may be collected by third-party advertising to be sold, please follow the instructions on this page: Limit the Use of My Sensitive Personal Information.


    Regarding Cookies:


    This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by third-party advertising networks such as Investing Channel may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative) If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly.


    Our Commission Policy:

    As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. I also earn a commission on purchases of precious metals via BullionVault. I receive no fees or compensation for any other non-advertising links or content posted on my site.

      © Blogger templates Newspaper III by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

    Back to TOP